As Bears race to bottom, how much more valuable is the No. 1 pick?

NFL commissioner Pete Rozelle had the coin: a 1921 silver dollar.

The Steelers’ Dan Rooney told Bears executive Ed McCaskey to call it in the air.

McCaskey chose heads.

As the coin flipped into the air in a New Orleans hotel ballroom a few days before Super Bowl IV, the Steelers and Bears had a lot at stake. Both had finished 1-13 in 1969, forcing the NFL to settle which team had the right to draft first in 1970.

Art Rooney, the Steelers’ founder and Dan’s father, believed in letting your opponent call the coin toss. At dinner later, he told McCaskey that his calling heads was a “sucker play.”

The reason: The coin landed on the tablecloth, bounced and came up tails.

The Steelers got the first pick and selected Louisiana Tech quarterback Terry Bradshaw, who would go on to win four Super Bowls and reach the Pro Football Hall of Fame.

The Bears, who spent the next 50-plus years looking for a quarterback, traded the No. 2 pick to the Packers for linebacker LeRoy Caffey, running back Elijah Pitts and offensive lineman Bob Hylund. The Bears would cut Pitts that year; the other two played a season each for them.

Fifty-three years later, the Bears have the next, best opportunity to draft first. They need to lose to the Vikings on Sunday at Soldier Field and have the 2-13-1 Texans win in Indianapolis.

The Bears would pick second if they and the Texans lose. If the Bears win, they can draft no lower than fourth.

In 1970, there was a giant difference between the first and second pick. The Bears have felt the ripples of it for half a century.

But exactly how much more valuable is No. 1 than No. 2 this time around?

Who’s better?

Historically, it’s a toss-up. Since the draft was shortened to 12 rounds in 1977, six No. 1 overall draft selections have made the Pro Football Hall of Fame. So have six players drafted second.

Eight of the players selected first overall in the last 10 drafts — not counting 2022 — reached the Pro Bowl. Combined, they made 19 Pro Bowls. Six players picked No. 2 overall in the last 10 drafts made the Pro Bowl and went a combined nine times.

Extrapolated further, though, 15 of the last 20 No. 1 overall picks made the Pro Bowl for a combined 37 appearances. Eleven out of the 20 No. 2 overall picks made the Pro Bowl but combined to reach it 38 times.

Look under center

The top draft pick is worth more when there’s a quarterback to select. Whether one is truly worthy or teams convince themselves that’s the case is another question.

Quarterbacks have found themselves at the top of the draft 16 times since 2000, including six of the last eight years. But a quarterback has gone second overall only five times in that span.

The lesson: Most years, the only way to guarantee a team gets the quarterback it wants is to draft first overall.

Alabama quarterback Bryce Young could go first overall this year. That would be good news for the Bears if they end up with the first pick. Presuming they’re convinced that Justin Fields is their answer at quarterback, they could auction the No. 1 spot to the most quarterback-hungry team.

That pick would be a lot more tempting to the acquiring team than No. 2.

More options

The real value of drafting No. 1 is options.

Moving the No. 1 is typically rare because, in the modern era, a team with an established quarterback isn’t often the worst squad in the league. But teams that do have a quarterback historically have landed a haul in return.

In 2016, the Titans traded the No. 1 overall pick to the Rams, along with picks in Rounds 4 and 6, for the Nos. 15, 43, 45 and 76 picks in 2016 and Nos. 5 and 100 in 2017. The Rams drafted Jared Goff.

In 2004, the Chargers drafted Eli Manning first overall and — because he said he refused to play for them — traded him to the Giants minutes later for the No. 4 overall pick, a third-rounder in 2004 and first- and third-rounders in 2005.

The Jimmy Johnson chart

The Jimmy Johnson trade value chart was developed by the former Cowboys coach about 30 years ago. The chart became an easy short-hand way for teams to exchange trade ideas, though no club follows it exactly.

How much more valuable is No. 1 than No. 2?

The chart assigns 3,000 points to the first overall pick, 2,600 to the second, 2,200 to the third and 1,800 to the fourth. To move up from No. 2 to No. 1 using the chart, a team would have to also trade the No. 18 pick in Round 2.

Tell that to a team desperate to draft a quarterback, though. The price of the No. 1 overall pick skyrockets when there’s a passer at stake.

The Texans would be happy to draft one first overall. But Bears general manager Ryan Poles likely would begin strategizing how best to use the pick — and whether to trade it.

Both topics are more interesting than anything they put on the field this season.

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