Baseball Prospectus 2022 PECOTA view White Sox as AL Central favorites

There is not much to be hopeful for these days if you are a baseball fan. The lockout is still in place, with little progress being made between the player’s association and the league owners. They have agreed on a universal DH and a few other subjects but that is the gist of it.

Nonetheless, Baseball Prospectus still released their unofficial PECOTA projections for 2022. If you are a White Sox fan, you are happy with the projections for the team and for key players on the team.

With free agency still incomplete, and some key holes in a few positions for the White Sox, Baseball Prospectus still has the White Sox as the clear AL Central favorites with.a record of 94 wins and 68 losses.

Players like Jose Abreu, Yoan Moncada, and Luis Robert had slightly above average expectations.

José Abreu (.815 OPS, 28 HR, 8.4% BB, 22.3% K, 115 DRC+, 2.3 WARP)
Yoán Moncada (.808 OPS, 20 HR, 12.2% BB, 25.5% K, 113 DRC+, 2.9 WARP)
Luis Robert (.834 OPS, 22 HR, 6.4% BB, 24.5% K, 118 DRC+, 3.8 WARP)

Other key players on the team that have fans excited from their respective projections included Yasmani Grandal, Aaron Bummer, Liam Hendriks, and Dylan Cease. Their projections are below:

Yasmani Grandal (Median Projection: .867 OPS, 22 HR, 20.0% BB, 22.2% K 131 DRC+, 5.2 WARP)
Aaron Bummer (48 1⁄3 IP, 2.75 ERA, 11.33 K/9, 4.02 BB/9, 0.9 WARP)
Liam Hendriks (Median Projection: 53 1⁄3 IP, 2.22 ERA, 13.22 K/9, 1.87 BB/9, 1.2 WARP)
Dylan Cease (140 1⁄3 IP, 3.54 ERA, 10.8 K/9, 4.0 BB/9, 2.0 WARP)

Of course that number looks pretty on paper, but in the end all it is are projections. There are always many underlying variables going into a season. In 2021, injuries were a huge problem for the White Sox and it ia always unpredictable to predict when they will happen.

Based on the roster as is currently, a healthy 2022 White Sox can definitely hit these expectations. For comparison, 2021 PECOTA projections had the White Sox at 83 wins and 79 losses. Despite all the injuries, they still surpassed those projections.

With the lockout still going on, spring training and opening day being delayed looms large, but Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections are certainly a nice thing to look at in order to get an idea of what to expect for the season.

Read More