As well as the Bulls have handled the first 27 games of the regular season, Donovan is focusing on the next game, but also the big picture of what he wants this team to be for a possible playoff run.
Analytics are a guide for Billy Donovan, not a bible.
There are numbers the Bulls coach finds important throughout the course of a regular season, and then there are numbers that stats nerds give way too much attention to in his opinion.
A lot of that changes in the postseason.
In some instances playoff basketball puts, “analytics are out the window,” according to the coach.
Before the Bulls were shut down for the week after 10 players entered the NBA’s health and safety protocol, there were two areas that had Donovan concerned. He was bothered by the amount of minutes Zach LaVine and Lonzo Ball were accumulating because the team was so short-handed, and he’s been concerned with the amount of fouling his team has done.
This pause should fix one of those concerns.
“Once we get whole physically, we’ll be able to manage minutes better,” Donovan said.
Donovan is by no means a member of the “minutes police,” but he currently has three players sitting in the top 20 of minutes played per game, led by Ball who was averaging 35.5 minutes per game, which was 14th in the NBA.
Veteran DeMar DeRozan was 17th (35.3 minutes per game) and LaVine was 19th (35.1 minutes per game). To put that in perspective, Tom Thibodeau’s Knicks – who the old Bulls regime and Bulls fans liked to accuse of overusing players – has just one player in the top 20 in minutes per game and that was Julius Randle at 35.4 (15th overall).
Getting Coby White back for the scheduled Sunday game with the Lakers will help ease the backcourt work of LaVine and Ball, with rookie Ayo Dosunmu also expected back shortly after that. DeRozan was also expected to be out of the protocol, along with wing Javonte Green.
So help was coming.
The fouling situation? That’s a bit tougher. The Bulls defense was built on aggression this season. Deflections, steals, just harassing the ball, the roster has been great at that all year. At the same time, it is an undersized team.
Combine that aggressiveness with players that are undersized, and fouls are going to happen with this group. The problem is they are best on the offensive end when in transition. Taking the ball out of the basket stifles the athleticism the Bulls have over most teams.
What Donovan would like to see is a better understanding of when to foul, and come playoff time especially, who to foul.
“Those superstar players in the playoffs that seem to flip a switch, and then the idea that baskets are harder to come by, well, if we’re going to keep fouling at the rate we’re fouling – we’ve been better lately – but you can’t be in a situation where baskets are hard to come by and you’re fouling so much,” Donovan said. “Every position, free throw here, free throw there, that’s why I say analytics go out the window.”
The number that Donovan and the organization should be paying attention to as of Wednesday?
How about .487.
The Bulls have 55 regular-season games left to fix the fouling, as well as other areas, and they get to do it against lesser opponents than they’ve seen. Along with Memphis, the Bulls have the fifth easiest schedule left winning percentage-wise at that .487 mark.
Cleveland has the easiest at .469, followed by Miami at .479.
Grab some duct tape and ball bearings, and let the repairs commence.
“Our veteran guys understand that there’s an identity that has to be built-out as we continue with this,” Donovan added.
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