The coronavirus isn’t deadly in every way. It’s brought back to life two old-fashioned means of communication: phone calling and letter writing.

It’s been nearly 13 years since Nielsen announced the phone call’s adieu in the United States. In autumn 2007 the number of texts sent on cellphones topped the number of phone calls. Today three-quarters of American households no longer have landline phones, and cellphones convey five times more text messages than voice calls.

Actual voice calls are reserved mostly for our mothers and for emergencies. Phone chats with my friends have been rare for years.

It was therefore striking that last Friday I had seven long phone conversations with friends as we coped with isolation.

Texting or email could have confirmed that the other person was all right. Phoning served an additional purpose: to hear the voice of an intimate during this weeks-long, maybe months-long, seclusion; to have thoughtful communication, not just an answer to “Are you okay?”

Email and texting don’t meet the need for intimacy and immediacy. An email may be answered hours later or not at all. A text message is likely to be hasty and impersonal. Neither gives the comfort of hearing an actual, familiar voice.

A telephone call can be as intimate and long as the two or more of you desire. Under the present circumstances, it’s nearly guaranteed that a ringing phone will be answered.

During this episode even my college-age nieces, who are major texters like the rest of their generation, are preferring to talk to their friends by voice chats. Admittedly, it’s with the addition of video via FaceTime, but they consider FaceTime like a phone call plus. “It’s the same as the phone except with a video stream so you can see each other,” Alex said.

They’ve discovered the limitations of texting.

“It’s way easier to talk to people over FaceTime than by text if you are trying to catch up and have an extended conversation,” Ashley said.

They’ve also phoned — audio only — their grandmother in an assisted living residence. Frequent calls from her family members are a lifeline for my mother, who can’t have visitors and doesn’t have a cellphone or a computer.

Concern about elderly people in senior residences motivated people to revive another old-fashioned style of communicating: a note or a card in a stamped enveloped delivered by the US Post Office.

Like phone calls, greeting cards and handwritten letters on stationery were replaced by electronic messages years ago. But last week USA Today reported about people who are initiating or volunteering for projects to make cards for elderly residents of nursing homes and retirement facilities who are confined to their rooms, seeing only the staff who deliver their meals and medicine. In case volunteers worry about transmitting the coronavirus on stationery, the story said that such transmission is “extremely unlikely.”

When we’re finally released from isolation, it’s likely that these old-fashioned modes will fade again. But I doubt that they’ll entirely disappear, especially phone calls. There will always be times when we are separated from loved ones, by miles if not by a virus, and want to hear their voices and really talk with them.

*****

ANTI-TRUMP QUOTATIONS: 106TH IN AN ONGOING SERIES

”I’m finding it hard to control my anger with Donald Trump’s response to this crisis. I have doctors and nurses and first responders begging for masks, equipment, and more tests. … Donald Trump promised to deliver for all the states weeks ago and so far has done very little. This is the time for serious people, not the carnival barkers that are tweeting from the cheap seats. All I can say is get to work or get out of the way.”
— Illinois Gov. J. B. Pritzker

J.B. Pritzker. (Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune)

The Belleville News-Democrat reported:

On CNN’s State of the Union show with Jake Tapper, [Illinois Gov. J.B.] Pritzker said the White House should issue a nationwide shelter-in-place order as the number of cases increases. [Emphasis added.]

Guv, you’re not happy enough knocking Illinois’ already troubled economy for a loop by ordering everyone to stay home? You think that making everyone (except “essential” workers, like real estate agents) cower in place is the answer?

Reminds me of what once was said in Vietnam: “It became necessary to destroy the village in order to save it.” Or to update: It’s necessary to destroy America’s economy in order to save the country.

The multi-billionaire Pritzker probably lost a ton in equities and other investments thanks to the stock market crash. But not enough so that he has to panic like the other Americans who aren’t part of Pritzker’s 1 percent. Spare us, oh guv.

[email protected]

www.dennisbyrne.net 

My historical novel: Madness: The War of 1812

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While Covid-19 over all of us looms

They’re asking that we spend the time in our rooms.

Let’s follow the guidelines

And stay on the sidelines

So fewer of us will wind up in our tombs.

During an outbreak in your community, protect yourself and others by:

(Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune)

America’s and the world’s economies are being torpedoed on the basis of rampant speculation.

Call it science, but it’s still speculation. That’s because every single analysis about the gravity of the coronavirus pandemic is based on a fatal  flaw:

There’s no way to satisfactorily predict how many people–what percentage of the population–will die from coronavirus.

That’s because you can catch the disease, but you may never know it. Neither will doctors, healthcare professionals or experts who are estimating the impact of the pandemic.

Covid-19 in some cases will produce minor or no symptoms. In another word, asymptomatic. How many actual cases, no one knows. Or will ever know. Test everyone who exhibits symptoms–whether of coronavirus or not–you still won’t find the cases that fly under the radar.

Without knowing the total number of actual cases, you never, not ever, will be able to determine the percentage of people who die from the disease. In other words, the fatality rate is determined by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases. In mathematical terms, without that accurate number as the denominator, you’ll never get a true percentage.

(Unless, of course, you test every single one of the 330 million Americans to discover every hidden case. Absurd. You can do a representative sample of the entire population, but as far as I know that hasn’t been done prior to launching the economy killing hide-in-place policies.)

This, of course, is my opinion. But I’m not alone in it. Here are some others:

• How many people are going to die from COVID-19? A group of statisticians who work for the Human Rights Data Analysis Group notes that studies estimating the fatality rate range from “0.24 percent to 0.48 per cent,” on average, vastly below the estimates that have set off the economy-killing policies.

• Lower death rate estimates for coronavirus, especially for non-elderly, provide glimmer of hope. “The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%. The chance of serious illness from coronavirus infection in younger people was so low, the scientists estimate a fatality rate of zero.”

• How deadly is the new coronavirus? “The case-fatality rate is determined by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases. Epidemiologists believe the total number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 is underestimated because people with few or mild symptoms may never see a doctor. As testing expands and scientists begin using retrospective methods to study who has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 circulating in their bloodstreams, the total number of confirmed cases will go up and the ratio of deaths to infections will likely drop.” [Emphasis added]

• Will The Costs Of A Great Depression Outweigh The Risks Of Coronavirus? “Federal and state governments are making a massive gamble about a little-understood new virus. They are betting our future on the most extreme worst-case scenario without considering the costs.” The article cites an expert: “If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to ‘influenza-like illness’ would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.”

Read these and other articles examining the death estimates and you will come to realize that they involve extremely intricate calculations and poorly supported assumptions. I’m not claiming that these articles totally vindicate my view, but they do reveal the shaky foundation on which federal, state and local governments have based policies that in the end may have more far-reaching, long-lasting and destructive consequences than Covid-19.

Related: Letter from the huddled masses.

[email protected]

www.dennisbyrne.net 

My historical novel: Madness: The War of 1812

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Many of us are preparing for another (or first for some) week of working remotely, not working at all and/or homeschooling our children while schools are closed as a result of COVID-19. Last week was pretty rough in our household, not because teaching our child is outside the normal, but because this situation itself is truly a lot to deal with. I wrote a few schooling from home tips based on day 1, however, also learned as the week went on that we needed to be flexible.

I’m one of the “lucky” parents who has the ability to work remotely vs. being out of work and losing wages or having to commute in the midst of the pandemic, but none of us are lucky in this scenario. Across the world, we are dealing with the unknown. All we know is what is being reported by the media and delivered in remarks by government officials and experts, and that’s a scary feeling no matter what side of it you’re on.

As adults, some of us are terrified of this unknown virus that has taken the world by storm because we don’t want ourselves, love ones or anyone else to be infected, others are skeptical of how much we’re being told and not told, and some simply don’t care at all because they think it’s all a conspiracy. I’m personally taking it seriously because people are dying across the world from something we truly aren’t in a position to fight. I don’t care how few deaths there appear to be in comparison to the cases, one death is honestly too much when it’s something we have no defense against.

That being said, I urge everyone to do what’s best for their own families during this time. This means listening to your children and adjusting as needed. My daughter told me last night that she misses going to school with her friends and her weekly dance class. She had a hard time staying focused last week when she’s generally an honor student, because this whole situation is even scarier for children. While it may feel like a break from school, most kids understand that they aren’t home because the schools decided to give them an extra break.

Instead of starting her school day at the normal time, I’ve become more flexible to allow her to sleep longer, which in turn gives me some uninterrupted time in the morning to perform the duties of my role remotely. Once she’s awake, she has the freedom to pick the assignments she wants to focus on, with my guidance on deadlines and how many she should accomplish daily. It took us a while to get into this groove, but we are figuring it out.

So far, my daughter has received praise from two teachers on work she turned in last week. My original plan consisted of me mapping out what she needed to complete each day, but I have to pivot because that wasn’t really what worked for us collectively. I also allowed her to have a version of gym once she mentioned missing gym class. We jumped rope, hula hooped and she rode her bike for a little to keep her active. On Tuesday, we will be having dance class, where she will teach me the routine she’s been learning all year to keep her going on that.

Many of us have at least two weeks left of this “new” normal setup, if not longer. The best we can all do is make sure our families are staying safe and healthy, and doing what’s best for our households. Above all else, please listen to your local officials. If they’re saying stay home, please stay home.

I’d love to know what’s been working in your households as well, so feel free to chime in via comments or social media shares.

Today, Sunday,  is the first full day of the order to stay at home to fight the unseen enemy, the Novel Coronavirus and Covid-19. By order of Governor JB Pritzker, we must not leave our houses until April 07, unless it is for essential work, to go to the grocery or to help with a relative.

People I spoke with had reactions from “total overreaction” to “it’s about time.”

To me, it’s a bit fuzzy.  For instance, can a person leave their house and go to a park?  Will the parks remain open?   The city of Aurora closed its parks.  Will other towns and cities follow?  If you live in a house with a backyard closing a park is no big deal, but if you live in a highrise or an apartment building, then you might feel the walls closing in on you.

Of course, no Sunday services today for many thousands.  And no Sunday breakfast at the many pancake houses across the area.

The Catholic Church decided to speak from afar to its members, using church bells, an ancient but effective means of communication.

Cardinal Blase Cupich, archbishop of Chicago, is asking Catholic parishes to ring their church bells five times a day between 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. This started Saturday.

Each of the five prayer times will be dedicated to a specific group particularly affected by the pandemic.

The groups are listed below:

9 a.m. – Prayer for those infected with the virus and all those who are ill

12 p.m. – Prayer for healthcare workers and those attending to the sick

3 p.m. – Prayer for first responders and essential workers

6 p.m. – Prayer for people of every nation and their leaders

9 p.m. – Prayer for those who have died today

Which bell tolls for you?

Which will?

The Covid-19  confirmed cases count keeps growing, statewide (1049) and nationally (33,695) and across the globe (343,021).

Science-based channels focusing on Covid-19:

Dr. John Campbell

MedCram

(A multi-part series reflection on fellowship written by Lira Luis)

“Fellowship work in its manifold branches will come directly under the influence of an organic philosophy: organic architecture for organic life. At Taliesin this life will be lived with such sense of the Future as may belong to the present.” -Frank Lloyd Wright

Part 1 – Taliesin Fellowship

Most people, when they hear the word “fellowship” will define the word based on their own perceptions and situations in life. Cambridge Dictionary defines it in two ways:

1) “a friendly feeling that exists between people who have a shared interest or are doing something as a group”; or

2) a status within “a group of people or an organization with the same purpose”.

In moments of uncertainty, I find that fellowship is what gives predictability to an unknown future.

The first fellowship I worked towards was, after graduating from a 5-year institutionalized undergraduate architecture education at the University of Santo Tomas (College of Architecture and Fine Arts) in Manila, Philippines. Some of the most prestigious companies in the country acquire a list of recent graduates from my alma mater for their recruitment efforts. When they learned that I graduated with cum laude honors, they sent me offers of employment even before applying to get interviews. It was also during this time that I was researching for graduate schools and encountered Frank Lloyd Wright’s Taliesin Fellowship (that offered a Master of Architecture degree) from a book at the Thomas Jefferson Library of the US Embassy in Philippines. 

There were so many choices and my architecture future at that time was unknown and yet to be written, so I wrote to Richard “Dick” Carney, Director of Admissions of the Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture (FLWSA) who was also CEO/President of the Frank Lloyd Wright Foundation at that time, and sent my application that included a portfolio, letters of reference, and an essay on why I wanted to pursue the fellowship.

I worked towards the fellowship for the strong vision it offered and the platform of process on which I can create my path in architecture — primarily the vision of an apprenticeship not scholarship, based on a free individual work-experience under the influence of an organic philosophy; and secondarily the Master of Architecture degree. This is an excerpt from my essay application to the Taliesin Fellowship:

“I am very much interested to study at Taliesin for the purpose that I want to know more about the works of Frank Lloyd Wright. I believe that my architectural ideas are greatly influenced by his architectural concepts. I want to experience being an apprentice at the Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture, and at the same time wish to earn the degree of Masters in Architecture.”

Lira Luis (inside dashed blue circle) at the Taliesin West Studio circa 1998.

When I started my graduate program in 1997, the Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture (FLWSA) under the leadership of the Frank Lloyd Wright Foundation, had just received its NAAB accreditation for this program. Twenty (20) years after June 17, 2000 when I earned my NAAB-accredited Master of Architecture degree, its spin-off independent company, the School of Architecture at Taliesin (SoAT) formed as a non-profit corporation on June 14, 2017 in Arizona, now faces an existential moment, its future uncertain. 

L-R: Terry Kerr (Adjunct Faculty at Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture), Lira Luis, Susan Jacobs Lockhart (daughter of Frank Lloyd Wright clients of a UNESCO World Heritage Site [Jacobs House] and Frank Lloyd Wright Foundation board trustee) during Lira’s graduation ceremony at Taliesin Hillside Theater in Spring Green, WI on June 17, 2000.)

When I first read the news of the decision of SoAT board to close and its later reversal of that decision, I held on to the vision of the Taliesin Fellowship that has become a part of me and a part of me has become a part of Taliesin, long after I had graduated (Lira Luis, Taliesin Breakaway, Wisconsin River Valley Journal, 1997):

It’s “Organic architecture for organic life… a life lived with such sense of the Future as may belong to the present (Frank Lloyd Wright, An Autobiography, 1932).”

So to my fellow members of the Taliesin Fellowship — original, legacy, past, present, and those who came simply for the experience, including those who consider it as family: The time you spent in Frank Lloyd Wright’s “organic classroom” remains with you. A part of you has become a part of Taliesin, and a part of Taliesin has become a part of you. No one can take that away (or close it) from you.

“Apprenticeship not Scholarship… should be the attitude of mind of the Fellowship (Frank Lloyd Wright, An Autobiography, 1943, page 392).” 

Let’s reclaim the Taliesin Fellowship promise that out of its obscured present a brighter Future will come. The 21st century (and beyond) has room for the kind of Freedom Taliesin education has to offer.

(Up next: Part 2 – The RIBA Fellowship)

Lira Luis is a 2020 Fellow of the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA). She is principal architect at ALLL/Leapfrog Project, delivers presentations at national conferences named in the “Gold 100 Listing of the world’s largest and most successful trade shows” for the past 20 years. She organized and led the AIA national Practice Management’s (PMKC) A’19 session “Virtual Architectural Practice: Alternate Realities for the Emerging Gig Economy” and “Virtual Practices: The Impact of Technology and Transience on New Histories in Practice” partner program at the 2017 Chicago Architecture Biennial, subsequently co-authored a resulting white paper with AIA Trust “An Architect’s Guide to Virtual Practice” that reached more than 30,000 AIA members, and moderated the webinar “Virtual Architectural Practice – An Alternate Reality”. At A’16 Conference on Architecture she shared solutions about the gig economy and potential for Virtual Practices in “Rethinking the Workplace: Co-Working Spaces for Architects”. She brings more than 25 years of architecture experience and is emeritus chair of AIA national PMKC. After graduating from the Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture (FLWSA), working in firms in the USA and abroad, earning NCARB certification, she runs a Virtual Practice on Blockchain Technology.