While Covid-19 over all of us looms

They’re asking that we spend the time in our rooms.

Let’s follow the guidelines

And stay on the sidelines

So fewer of us will wind up in our tombs.

During an outbreak in your community, protect yourself and others by:

(Brian Cassella / Chicago Tribune)

America’s and the world’s economies are being torpedoed on the basis of rampant speculation.

Call it science, but it’s still speculation. That’s because every single analysis about the gravity of the coronavirus pandemic is based on a fatal  flaw:

There’s no way to satisfactorily predict how many people–what percentage of the population–will die from coronavirus.

That’s because you can catch the disease, but you may never know it. Neither will doctors, healthcare professionals or experts who are estimating the impact of the pandemic.

Covid-19 in some cases will produce minor or no symptoms. In another word, asymptomatic. How many actual cases, no one knows. Or will ever know. Test everyone who exhibits symptoms–whether of coronavirus or not–you still won’t find the cases that fly under the radar.

Without knowing the total number of actual cases, you never, not ever, will be able to determine the percentage of people who die from the disease. In other words, the fatality rate is determined by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases. In mathematical terms, without that accurate number as the denominator, you’ll never get a true percentage.

(Unless, of course, you test every single one of the 330 million Americans to discover every hidden case. Absurd. You can do a representative sample of the entire population, but as far as I know that hasn’t been done prior to launching the economy killing hide-in-place policies.)

This, of course, is my opinion. But I’m not alone in it. Here are some others:

• How many people are going to die from COVID-19? A group of statisticians who work for the Human Rights Data Analysis Group notes that studies estimating the fatality rate range from “0.24 percent to 0.48 per cent,” on average, vastly below the estimates that have set off the economy-killing policies.

• Lower death rate estimates for coronavirus, especially for non-elderly, provide glimmer of hope. “The chance of someone with symptomatic Covid-19 dying varied by age, confirming other studies. For those aged 15 to 44, the fatality rate was 0.5%, though it might have been as low as 0.1% or as high as 1.3%. For people 45 to 64, the fatality rate was also 0.5%, with a possible low of 0.2% and a possible high of 1.1%. For those over 64, it was 2.7%, with a low and high estimate of 1.5% and 4.7%. The chance of serious illness from coronavirus infection in younger people was so low, the scientists estimate a fatality rate of zero.”

• How deadly is the new coronavirus? “The case-fatality rate is determined by dividing the number of deaths by the total number of cases. Epidemiologists believe the total number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 is underestimated because people with few or mild symptoms may never see a doctor. As testing expands and scientists begin using retrospective methods to study who has antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 circulating in their bloodstreams, the total number of confirmed cases will go up and the ratio of deaths to infections will likely drop.” [Emphasis added]

• Will The Costs Of A Great Depression Outweigh The Risks Of Coronavirus? “Federal and state governments are making a massive gamble about a little-understood new virus. They are betting our future on the most extreme worst-case scenario without considering the costs.” The article cites an expert: “If we had not known about a new virus out there, and had not checked individuals with PCR tests, the number of total deaths due to ‘influenza-like illness’ would not seem unusual this year. At most, we might have casually noted that flu this season seems to be a bit worse than average. The media coverage would have been less than for an NBA game between the two most indifferent teams.”

Read these and other articles examining the death estimates and you will come to realize that they involve extremely intricate calculations and poorly supported assumptions. I’m not claiming that these articles totally vindicate my view, but they do reveal the shaky foundation on which federal, state and local governments have based policies that in the end may have more far-reaching, long-lasting and destructive consequences than Covid-19.

Related: Letter from the huddled masses.

[email protected]

www.dennisbyrne.net 

My historical novel: Madness: The War of 1812

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Many of us are preparing for another (or first for some) week of working remotely, not working at all and/or homeschooling our children while schools are closed as a result of COVID-19. Last week was pretty rough in our household, not because teaching our child is outside the normal, but because this situation itself is truly a lot to deal with. I wrote a few schooling from home tips based on day 1, however, also learned as the week went on that we needed to be flexible.

I’m one of the “lucky” parents who has the ability to work remotely vs. being out of work and losing wages or having to commute in the midst of the pandemic, but none of us are lucky in this scenario. Across the world, we are dealing with the unknown. All we know is what is being reported by the media and delivered in remarks by government officials and experts, and that’s a scary feeling no matter what side of it you’re on.

As adults, some of us are terrified of this unknown virus that has taken the world by storm because we don’t want ourselves, love ones or anyone else to be infected, others are skeptical of how much we’re being told and not told, and some simply don’t care at all because they think it’s all a conspiracy. I’m personally taking it seriously because people are dying across the world from something we truly aren’t in a position to fight. I don’t care how few deaths there appear to be in comparison to the cases, one death is honestly too much when it’s something we have no defense against.

That being said, I urge everyone to do what’s best for their own families during this time. This means listening to your children and adjusting as needed. My daughter told me last night that she misses going to school with her friends and her weekly dance class. She had a hard time staying focused last week when she’s generally an honor student, because this whole situation is even scarier for children. While it may feel like a break from school, most kids understand that they aren’t home because the schools decided to give them an extra break.

Instead of starting her school day at the normal time, I’ve become more flexible to allow her to sleep longer, which in turn gives me some uninterrupted time in the morning to perform the duties of my role remotely. Once she’s awake, she has the freedom to pick the assignments she wants to focus on, with my guidance on deadlines and how many she should accomplish daily. It took us a while to get into this groove, but we are figuring it out.

So far, my daughter has received praise from two teachers on work she turned in last week. My original plan consisted of me mapping out what she needed to complete each day, but I have to pivot because that wasn’t really what worked for us collectively. I also allowed her to have a version of gym once she mentioned missing gym class. We jumped rope, hula hooped and she rode her bike for a little to keep her active. On Tuesday, we will be having dance class, where she will teach me the routine she’s been learning all year to keep her going on that.

Many of us have at least two weeks left of this “new” normal setup, if not longer. The best we can all do is make sure our families are staying safe and healthy, and doing what’s best for our households. Above all else, please listen to your local officials. If they’re saying stay home, please stay home.

I’d love to know what’s been working in your households as well, so feel free to chime in via comments or social media shares.

Today, Sunday,  is the first full day of the order to stay at home to fight the unseen enemy, the Novel Coronavirus and Covid-19. By order of Governor JB Pritzker, we must not leave our houses until April 07, unless it is for essential work, to go to the grocery or to help with a relative.

People I spoke with had reactions from “total overreaction” to “it’s about time.”

To me, it’s a bit fuzzy.  For instance, can a person leave their house and go to a park?  Will the parks remain open?   The city of Aurora closed its parks.  Will other towns and cities follow?  If you live in a house with a backyard closing a park is no big deal, but if you live in a highrise or an apartment building, then you might feel the walls closing in on you.

Of course, no Sunday services today for many thousands.  And no Sunday breakfast at the many pancake houses across the area.

The Catholic Church decided to speak from afar to its members, using church bells, an ancient but effective means of communication.

Cardinal Blase Cupich, archbishop of Chicago, is asking Catholic parishes to ring their church bells five times a day between 9 a.m. and 9 p.m. This started Saturday.

Each of the five prayer times will be dedicated to a specific group particularly affected by the pandemic.

The groups are listed below:

9 a.m. – Prayer for those infected with the virus and all those who are ill

12 p.m. – Prayer for healthcare workers and those attending to the sick

3 p.m. – Prayer for first responders and essential workers

6 p.m. – Prayer for people of every nation and their leaders

9 p.m. – Prayer for those who have died today

Which bell tolls for you?

Which will?

The Covid-19  confirmed cases count keeps growing, statewide (1049) and nationally (33,695) and across the globe (343,021).

Science-based channels focusing on Covid-19:

Dr. John Campbell

MedCram

(A multi-part series reflection on fellowship written by Lira Luis)

“Fellowship work in its manifold branches will come directly under the influence of an organic philosophy: organic architecture for organic life. At Taliesin this life will be lived with such sense of the Future as may belong to the present.” -Frank Lloyd Wright

Part 1 – Taliesin Fellowship

Most people, when they hear the word “fellowship” will define the word based on their own perceptions and situations in life. Cambridge Dictionary defines it in two ways:

1) “a friendly feeling that exists between people who have a shared interest or are doing something as a group”; or

2) a status within “a group of people or an organization with the same purpose”.

In moments of uncertainty, I find that fellowship is what gives predictability to an unknown future.

The first fellowship I worked towards was, after graduating from a 5-year institutionalized undergraduate architecture education at the University of Santo Tomas (College of Architecture and Fine Arts) in Manila, Philippines. Some of the most prestigious companies in the country acquire a list of recent graduates from my alma mater for their recruitment efforts. When they learned that I graduated with cum laude honors, they sent me offers of employment even before applying to get interviews. It was also during this time that I was researching for graduate schools and encountered Frank Lloyd Wright’s Taliesin Fellowship (that offered a Master of Architecture degree) from a book at the Thomas Jefferson Library of the US Embassy in Philippines. 

There were so many choices and my architecture future at that time was unknown and yet to be written, so I wrote to Richard “Dick” Carney, Director of Admissions of the Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture (FLWSA) who was also CEO/President of the Frank Lloyd Wright Foundation at that time, and sent my application that included a portfolio, letters of reference, and an essay on why I wanted to pursue the fellowship.

I worked towards the fellowship for the strong vision it offered and the platform of process on which I can create my path in architecture — primarily the vision of an apprenticeship not scholarship, based on a free individual work-experience under the influence of an organic philosophy; and secondarily the Master of Architecture degree. This is an excerpt from my essay application to the Taliesin Fellowship:

“I am very much interested to study at Taliesin for the purpose that I want to know more about the works of Frank Lloyd Wright. I believe that my architectural ideas are greatly influenced by his architectural concepts. I want to experience being an apprentice at the Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture, and at the same time wish to earn the degree of Masters in Architecture.”

Lira Luis (inside dashed blue circle) at the Taliesin West Studio circa 1998.

When I started my graduate program in 1997, the Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture (FLWSA) under the leadership of the Frank Lloyd Wright Foundation, had just received its NAAB accreditation for this program. Twenty (20) years after June 17, 2000 when I earned my NAAB-accredited Master of Architecture degree, its spin-off independent company, the School of Architecture at Taliesin (SoAT) formed as a non-profit corporation on June 14, 2017 in Arizona, now faces an existential moment, its future uncertain. 

L-R: Terry Kerr (Adjunct Faculty at Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture), Lira Luis, Susan Jacobs Lockhart (daughter of Frank Lloyd Wright clients of a UNESCO World Heritage Site [Jacobs House] and Frank Lloyd Wright Foundation board trustee) during Lira’s graduation ceremony at Taliesin Hillside Theater in Spring Green, WI on June 17, 2000.)

When I first read the news of the decision of SoAT board to close and its later reversal of that decision, I held on to the vision of the Taliesin Fellowship that has become a part of me and a part of me has become a part of Taliesin, long after I had graduated (Lira Luis, Taliesin Breakaway, Wisconsin River Valley Journal, 1997):

It’s “Organic architecture for organic life… a life lived with such sense of the Future as may belong to the present (Frank Lloyd Wright, An Autobiography, 1932).”

So to my fellow members of the Taliesin Fellowship — original, legacy, past, present, and those who came simply for the experience, including those who consider it as family: The time you spent in Frank Lloyd Wright’s “organic classroom” remains with you. A part of you has become a part of Taliesin, and a part of Taliesin has become a part of you. No one can take that away (or close it) from you.

“Apprenticeship not Scholarship… should be the attitude of mind of the Fellowship (Frank Lloyd Wright, An Autobiography, 1943, page 392).” 

Let’s reclaim the Taliesin Fellowship promise that out of its obscured present a brighter Future will come. The 21st century (and beyond) has room for the kind of Freedom Taliesin education has to offer.

(Up next: Part 2 – The RIBA Fellowship)

Lira Luis is a 2020 Fellow of the Royal Institute of British Architects (RIBA). She is principal architect at ALLL/Leapfrog Project, delivers presentations at national conferences named in the “Gold 100 Listing of the world’s largest and most successful trade shows” for the past 20 years. She organized and led the AIA national Practice Management’s (PMKC) A’19 session “Virtual Architectural Practice: Alternate Realities for the Emerging Gig Economy” and “Virtual Practices: The Impact of Technology and Transience on New Histories in Practice” partner program at the 2017 Chicago Architecture Biennial, subsequently co-authored a resulting white paper with AIA Trust “An Architect’s Guide to Virtual Practice” that reached more than 30,000 AIA members, and moderated the webinar “Virtual Architectural Practice – An Alternate Reality”. At A’16 Conference on Architecture she shared solutions about the gig economy and potential for Virtual Practices in “Rethinking the Workplace: Co-Working Spaces for Architects”. She brings more than 25 years of architecture experience and is emeritus chair of AIA national PMKC. After graduating from the Frank Lloyd Wright School of Architecture (FLWSA), working in firms in the USA and abroad, earning NCARB certification, she runs a Virtual Practice on Blockchain Technology.

In recent months, Cldwaterr has been slowly been building a reputation for himself as one of Chicago’s more compelling hip-hop artists. With a knack for fierce deliveries, deeply personal lyricism and an ear for old school instrumentals, he has taken the genre back to its roots in a way that is fresh and imaginative. On his new single, “Has-Been,” he continues to build on these trends.

Produced by Sekani, The instrumental has “classy” written all over it. The vocal sample is extremely soulful with a ghostly twang to it, and the grumbling base and rhythmic percussion serve as nice complimentary pieces. The strings are absolutely gorgeous as well.

Cldwaterr brings the braggadocio on here, but he backs it up by showing he’s in top form. There’s an undeniably smooth sense of charisma in his delivery, yet he sounds hungrier than ever. His wordplay is more sharp and his bars even more direct than usual, showing an immense amount of progression in just a short amount of time.

“Has-Been” is yet another example that Cldwaterr can appeal to hip-hop fans of all kinds. His old school beats and content-heavy rhymes are more than enough to appeal to a purist crowd, while his smooth sense of charisma should grab the ears of younger, more mainstream fans. With the universal appeal Cldwaterr has, he is definitely an artist who will be sticking around for a long time.

“Has-Been” is out now on all platforms. Stream it here: https://songwhip.com/song/cldwaterr/has-been

Follow Cldwaterr on Instagram @cldwaterr

SELF-ISOLATION, DAY 6

I am starting this the night before again. When I work my schedule is messed up.

Today was so different. The store was mildly busy until about 4 or 5pm, then it grew quieter and by about 6pm was nearly dead. The store management was there and gave us all sealed, hot meals. We will all receive a bonus. I began to feel more kindly to the store management and the administration of the grocery store chain in general. The managers are all there, working along side of us and exposed as much to the risk as any of us. We are not soldiers but the population depends on food stores, gas stations, pharmacies and medical personnel; transportation, police and fire department; there are so many people who make up the network of caring for this society. What if none of them came to work? What would we do?

Today I felt more mellow, perhaps because the work was not so intense and we were gradually trying to restock the shelves and make the store appear a bit more like normal. It is getting there, but in any case it is not a situation where people are starving because we are unable to keep up. There are certainly people who are in danger. Those who are already poor and now unemployed from a meager job and wondering where any money will come from. We really have to care about the rest of our society. If not, I believe we will truly fall apart as a society. I mean, really.

OK, beginning again/starting on Day 6, which I started last night. I am getting confused. I’m tired. Not sick, just tired.

So, this is Sunday, I went to work again and by the 3^rd day of weekend work I am pretty tired. The store was very quiet all day and by 6pm, an hour early, I was just looking for things to do to act busy, but tired and bored. So I asked for and received permission to leave an hour early. I don’t care about the lost 1 hour pay. In the morning we had quite a bit of various groceries to put on the shelves, still from the shipments the night before. Everyone not involved doing something else, like cashiers and baggers, and including all of management, and myself, were busy stocking the shelves, with customers threading their way between workers. Still though, most everyone in a good mood and polite with each other.

People are coping, adjusting. The church I occasionally attend is using live-streaming, and I met a female pastor of a nearby church, in the grocery line, who told me they are live-streaming services, and the Theosophical Society I mentioned, will start using ZOOM for our Wednesday evening discussion and meditation groups. So, these are some very positive aspects. The streets were quieter, regarding vehicular traffic, which is good. I hope people are really taking this seriously. I personally feel well. I have been through the H1N1 epidemic several years ago, and other flu epidemics. I always got my vaccine. This, of course, is a different animal. I don’t want my friends and relatives to die from this. I do not want to.

REMEMBER: Shelter in Place. It is not a joke. Stay home when you do not need to go out, except to walk, run, etc. Walk your dogs. Oh, it stopped raining! Today it is snowing. But this will also stop and the sun will again come out. Eat healthy, get fresh air in your home when weather permits. Fresh air and sunshine are healthy.

And, stay safe, be well, cooperate. Believe in the higher powers. March 22, 2020